Abstract Dengue is a viral disease whose number of cases has increased in Brazil. This study aimed to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of the reported dengue infection cases in the state of Alagoas (AL), Northeastern Brazil (NEB). The data of the officially reported dengue cases from 2000 to 2015 was retrieved from the State Health Secretariat of Alagoas (SESAL), which captures national demographic and health data from the System for the Reporting of Notifiable Conditions (SINAN). After applying the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) function, maps were generated based on the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation method. By using the clusters analysis (CA) technique, three homogeneous groups of dengue in AL were determined. Next, the LN (Lognormal), GUM (Gumbel) and GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) probability distributions were applied to monthly model dengue case data in AL, with the LN continuous probability distribution standing out. Maceió and Arapiraca have a higher number of dengue cases than other cities, being the main reason for their interpretation as separate groups. The coefficients of determination (R2) of dengue cases analysis as a function of month of each year for the studied years were low (between 0.03 and 0.63) and many regression slopes were not significant. Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) between dengue and the Human Development Index (HDI) of LA was considered moderate (0.53) and the correlation between dengue and demographic density was high (0.76). The importance of constant monitoring and assistance for these areas is reinforced.

Abstract The climatic zones of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) were defined based on the mathematical methodology of cluster analysis (CA). Data from 77 climatic seasons of average annual temperatures (maximum and minimum) and total annual precipitation data from 1978 to 2013 were used, and hierarchical (Ward) and partitional or non-hierarchical (k-means) CA algorithms were chosen, as two of the most used approaches, to carry out the regionalization. The optimum number of clusters in which the data can be grouped was determined by the statistical methods of elbow, silhouette and gap. The stability of the clusters is also tested by statistical approaches and four homogeneous groups were found, as in conventional climatic zones, but with considerable border differences. Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) between the series in each cluster helps to understand the dynamics of these clusters. The hierarchical cluster analysis and the elbow method for the optimal number of clusters was the most appropriate and satisfactory and was able to train and validate homogeneous regions of climate in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul. The efficient application of these methodologies is confirmed by the delimitation of four distinct clusters (homogeneous regions of climate), consistent with recorded heights and temperatures (maximum and minimum) and geographical characteristics as topography, in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul.

Abstract Sub-daily resolution rain gauge data (pluviographic records) should be used to define extreme rainfall intensity-frequency-duration curves. However, there is a lack of these records for many countries, which leads to the application of rainfall disaggregation models that transforms maximum daily rainfall data into sub-daily depths. The agreement between the intensity-duration-frequency curves obtained with disaggregation models and using sub-daily rainfall data is necessary to support the disaggregation method's applicability. The daily rainfall disaggregation method using disaggregation coefficients is the most used in Brazil, despite the lack of performance evaluation. The linear regression and model identity test was used to compare the intensity of rainfall obtained with different methodologies to obtain intensity-duration-frequency curves in 116 rain gauges in Minas Gerais, Brazil. There is a significant difference between the maximum rainfall intensity (im) obtained from pluviographic records and those estimated by the daily rainfall disaggregation. Nevertheless, comparing the im estimated by the daily rainfall disaggregation methods and the im obtained by sub-daily rainfall data, good precision and accuracy are observed, especially using specific disaggregation coefficients. The disaggregation IDF relationships had an underestimation tendency of im, especially in larger return periods, which can be considered less harmful since the larger return periods are associated with higher safety projects. The practical result of this paper was the possibility of a simple and effective methodology to disaggregate the daily into a sub-daily resolution rainfall.

Abstract Remote sensing can assist in the acquisition of scarce surface data. The analyzes for validation of the precipitation product estimated by the TRMM satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) were carried out with the precipitation data observed on the surface during the period from 1998 to 2019. For this purpose, precipitation data from the Pantanal biome meteorological stations were used, located between the 16 and 22°S parallels and the 55 and 58°W meridians, and compared with the data from the TRMM 3B42 V7 product algorithms. Statistical analysis was performed based on the correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), and relative bias (BIAS) between the monthly precipitation data observed on the surface and the estimated precipitation data. The results found for product 3B43 V7 indicated that the precipitation estimates were representative when compared to the surface observations. However, when compared for the rainy and dry periods, there was underestimation and overestimation, respectively, of the product. The product 3B42 V7 satisfactorily represents the precipitation that occurs on the surface.

Resumen La teledetección puede ayudar en la adquisición de datos de superficie escasos. Los análisis para la validación del producto de precipitación estimado por el satélite TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) se llevaron a cabo con los datos de precipitación observados en superficie durante el período de 1998 a 2019. Para ello, se utilizaron los datos de precipitación de estaciones meteorológicas em el bioma de Pantanal, utilizados, ubicados entre los paralelos 16 y 22°S y los meridianos 55 y 58°W y comparados con los datos de los algoritmos del producto TRMM 3B42 V7. El análisis estadístico se realizó con base en el coeficiente de correlación, el error cuadrático medio (RMSE), y el sesgo relativo (BIAS) entre los datos de precipitación mensual observados en la superficie y los datos de precipitación estimados. Los resultados encontrados para el producto 3B43 V7 indicaron que las estimaciones de precipitación fueron representativas en comparación con las observaciones de superfície. Sin embargo, cuando se compararon para los períodos lluvioso y seco, hubo subestimación y sobreestimación, respectivamente, del producto. El producto 3B42 V7 representa satisfactoriamente la precipitación que se produce en la superficie.

Resumo O sensoriamento remoto pode auxiliar na aquisição de dados de superfície escassos. As análises para validação do produto de precipitação estimado pelo satélite TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) foram realizadas com os dados de precipitação observados na superfície durante o período de 1998 a 2019. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados de precipitação de estações meteorológicas do bioma Pantanal, usados, localizados entre os paralelos de 16 e 22°S e os meridianos de 55 e 58°W e comparados com os dados dos algoritmos de produto TRMM 3B42 V7. A análise estatística foi realizada com base no coeficiente de correlação, erro quadrático médio (RMSE), e viés relativo (BIAS) entre os dados de precipitação mensal observados na superfície e os dados de precipitação estimados. Os resultados encontrados para o produto 3B43 V7 indicaram que as estimativas de precipitação foram representativas quando comparadas às observações de superfície. Porém, quando comparadas para os períodos chuvoso e seco, houve subestimação e superestimação, respectivamente, do produto. O produto 3B42 V7 representa de forma satisfatória a precipitação que ocorre na superfície.

Abstract The aim of this study was to model the height and diameter distributions and the height-diameter relationship in an old unmanaged Eucalyptus stand in southeastern Brazil. The diameter at 1.30 m above soil (DBH) and total height (H) of all 469 trees in the stand were measured. For the DBH-H modeling, besides testing various traditional linear and nonlinear models, the inclusion of diameter class as random effect was also testes. For the DBH and H distributions modeling, seven probability density function were tested. The DBH-H relationship was best represented by the Henriksen’s linear model. Including diameter classes as a random effect did not improve estimates. The three parameters Weibull distribution was the best model to describe the diameter and height in old and unmanaged planting of Eucalyptus. The DBH distribution showed the highest frequency of individuals in lower diametrical classes, influenced by competition, while H had distribution similar to normal.

Abstract Climate is considered an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. Dengue transmission involves many factors: although it is not yet fully understood, climate is a critical factor as it facilitates risk analysis of epidemics. This study analyzed the effect of seasonal factors and the relationship between climate variables and dengue risk in the municipality of Campo Grande, from 2008 to 2018. Generalized linear models with negative binomial and Poisson distribution were used. The most appropriate model was the one with "minimum temperature" and "precipitation", both lagged by one month, controlled by "year". In this model, a 1°C rise in the minimum temperature of one month led to an increase in dengue cases the following month, while a 10 mm increase in precipitation led to an increase in dengue cases the following month.

Resumo A determinação da área foliar (AF) das culturas é um parâmetro indicativo do crescimento e da produtividade, sendo a busca por métodos precisos e exatos para a sua estimativa de extrema importância. O urucum (Bixa orellana L.) é uma espécie arbórea nativa da Floresta Amazônica e da Mata Atlântica, cuja importância econômica está relacionada ao corante natural extraído de suas sementes. Assim, o presente estudo objetivou comparar diferentes métodos para determinação da AF em mudas de urucum. Para isso, o método planimétrico foi considerado padrão e, com base nele, testou-se a equivalência em relação aos métodos das dimensões foliares - comprimento (C) e largura (L) - e ao scanner. No método das dimensões foliares o fator de forma (f) de 0,64 foi ajustado previamente para o urucum por meio da análise de regressão entre AF e o produto C x L. No método do scanner, utilizou-se o aplicativo ImageJ para determinar a AF. A regressão linear sem intercepto entre AF do método padrão e AF estimada por cada método alternativo foi utilizada para verificar a concordância dos resultados. Os métodos das dimensões foliares e do scanner foram equivalentes ao método padrão (5% de probabilidade de erro) e equivalentes entre si (1% de probabilidade de erro). Assim, verificou-se que esses métodos podem ser empregados com segurança na estimativa da área foliar do urucum. Contudo, o método das dimensões apresenta vantagens práticas em relação aos outros por ser não destrutivo.

Abstract Leaf area (LA) determination of the crops is a parameter indicative of growth and yield, and precise and accurate methods for its estimation are very important. Urucum (Bixa orellana L.) is an arboreal species, native to the Amazon Rainforest and Atlantic Forest, with economic importance due to its natural dye seed extracts. Thus, the aim of this paper is to compare different methods for LA determination in Urucum seedlings. To do so, the planimetric method was considered the standard method and its equivalence to the method based in leaf size parameters - length (L) and width (W) - and the scanner method were tested. In the method based in leaf size parameters, the f of 0.64 was previously adjusted for the annatto by regression analysis between LA and the C xL product. In the scanner method, the ImageJ app was used to determine the LA. Linear regression without intercept between LA through the standard method and LA estimated through each alternative method was used to check the conformity between the results. Leaf size and scanner methods were equivalent to the standard method (5% error probability) and equivalent to each other (1% error probability). Thus, these methods can be reliably used for estimating the Urucum leaf area. However, the dimension method has practical advantages compared to the others as it is a non-destructive method.

Resumo Este estudo objetivou estabelecer um critério sobre qual teste de aderência deve ser preferido na escolha de funções de distribuição de probabilidades (fdp). Para tal, foram ajustadas as fdp: Gumbel (GUM), Generalizada de valores extremos (GEV) e Log-normal a 2 parâmetros (LN2), através dos métodos dos momentos, momentos-L e máxima verossimilhança, em séries de precipitação diária máxima anual de 11 estações localizadas na bacia hidrográfica do rio Sapucaí. A aderência dessas fdp aos dados foi feita pelos testes de Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), Qui-quadrado (χ2), Filliben (Fi) e Anderson-Darling (AD). Verificaram-se quais testes de aderência são mais rigorosos na seleção de distribuições de probabilidade e, ainda, os testes de aderência que convergem os resultados para a escolha da fdp com melhor desempenho na análise de incerteza e/ou nas estatísticas de ajuste. Os testes de aderência mais rigorosos no aceite da aderência da fdp aos dados são os testes de Fi e AD. O teste de Fi é o que mais converge para a escolha da fdp com melhor desempenho na análise de incerteza e nas estatísticas de ajuste, seguido pelo teste de χ2, portanto devem ser preferidos. As fdp GUM e GEV se destacaram em representar os dados de precipitação máxima anual.

Abstract This study aimed to establish a criterion on which good of fit test should be preferred in the choice of probability distribution functions (pdf). For this, the Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and 2-parameter Log-Normal (LN2) were fit Moments, L-moments and maximum likelihood methods, in annual maximum daily precipitation series of 11 rain gauges located in the hydrographic basin of the Sapucaí river. The adherence of these fdp to the data was made by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), Chi-square (χ2), Filliben (Fi) and Anderson-Darling (AD) tests. It was verified which good of fit tests are more rigorous in the selection of pdf and also the good of fit test that converge the results to the choice of the best performing fdp in the uncertainty analysis and/or statistics performance. The most stringent good of fit test on the adherence of fdp to the data are the Fi and AD tests. The Fi test, followed by the χ2 test showed best performance in terms of goodness of fit and convergence therefore, they should be preferred to others tests. The GUM and GEV are great pfd in representing the annual maximum precipitation data.

Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar as temperaturas cardinais e o filocrono para o desenvolvimento foliar das espécies de eucalipto Corymbia citriodora e Eucalyptus urophylla, durante a fase de muda. Um experimento de campo foi realizado em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, em arranjo fatorial 2x11, com as duas espécies de eucalipto, 11 épocas de semeadura e cinco repetições, em Itajubá, MG. As temperaturas cardinais - basal inferior, ótima e basal superior - para o desenvolvimento foliar foram, respectivamente, 8,7, 17,1 e 41,3°C, para C. citriodora, e 11,5, 17,1 e 40,5°C, para E. urophylla. O filocrono de C. citriodora foi de 62,95°C dia por folha, e o de E. urophylla, de 46,03°C dia por folha, o que é indício de que E. urophylla necessita de menor acúmulo energético do que C. citriodora para a emissão de folhas na haste principal.

Abstract: The objective of this work was to estimate cardinal temperatures and phyllochron for the leaf development of the eucalyptus species Corymbia citriodora and Eucalyptus urophylla, in the seedling phase. A field experiment was carried out in a completely randomized design, in a 2x11 factorial arrangement, with the two eucalyptus species, 11 sowing dates, and five replicates, in the municipality of Itajubá, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The cardinal temperatures - base, optimum, and maximum - for leaf development were, respectively, 8.7, 17.1, and 41.3°C, for C. citriodora, and 11.5, 17.1, and 40.5°C for E. urophylla. The phyllochron of C. citriodora was 62.95°C day per leaf, and that of E. urophylla was 46.03°C day per leaf, which indicates that E. urophylla requires less energy accumulation than C. citriodora for leaf emission in the main stem.

RESUMO Quando a disponibilidade de água no solo é reduzida, as plantas respondem diminuindo a taxa de transpiração, o crescimento e o desenvolvimento, na tentativa de aclimatação à deficiência hídrica. Com o objetivo de quantificar essas respostas em mudas de Corymbia citriodora (Hook.) K.D. Hill & L.A.S. Johnson, foi utilizada a metodologia da fração de água transpirável no solo (FATS), em um experimento conduzido em casa de vegetação, sob o delineamento inteiramente casualizado, sendo dois níveis de suplementação hídrica, duas épocas de aplicação da deficiência hídrica e nove repetições. A FATS e os parâmetros de transpiração, crescimento e desenvolvimento foram medidos diariamente durante a aplicação da deficiência hídrica. A FATS crítica, em que a transpiração, o crescimento e desenvolvimento começam a ser reduzidos, foi distinta nas épocas de aplicação da deficiência hídrica devido à diferença das condições meteorológicas. Os valores elevados de FATS indicaram que a espécie possuiu boa aclimatação à deficiência hídrica no solo, quando comparada com as espécies anuais e outras perenes.

ABSTRACT When water availability in the soil is reduced, plants respond decreasing transpiration rate, growth and development in an attempt to acclimate to water deficit. To quantify these responses in seedlings of Corymbia citriodora (Hook.) K.D. Hill & L.A.S. Johnson, we used the methodology of the Fraction of Transpirable Soil Water (FTSW), in an experiment conducted in a greenhouse, in a completely randomized design with two levels of water supplementation, two application times of water deficiency and nine replicates. The FTSW and the transpiration, growth and development parameters were measured daily during the application of water deficiency. The FTSW threshold, in which transpiration, growth and development begin to be reduced, was variable for different application times of water stress due to the difference in weather conditions. The high values of FTSW indicate that the species has good acclimation to soil water deficit compared to annuals and other perennials species.

Os modelos de simulação são ferramentas utilizadas na área de agrometeorologia para quantificar o desenvolvimento de culturas agrícolas e florestais. O trabalho teve como objetivo comparar os modelos do Filocrono (linear) e de Wang e Engel (não linear) para estimar o desenvolvimento foliar, através do aparecimento de folhas, nas cultivares de oliveira 'Arbequina' e 'MGS ASC315' durante a fase de muda. O experimento foi instalado no campo experimental da Empresa Agropecuária de Minas Gerais (EPAMIG), Maria da Fé (MG), sob o delineamento inteiramente casualizado e organizado em arranjo fatorial, sendo duas cultivares e nove épocas de transplantio com 15 repetições em cada tratamento. Os coeficientes dos modelos foram estimados pelos dados obtidos nas três primeiras épocas de transplantio e as demais épocas foram utilizadas para avaliar o desempenho dos modelos. As respostas dos modelos foram divergentes para os dois modelos. O modelo de Wang e Engel foi mais eficiente para a cultivar 'Arbequina', com raiz do quadrado médio do erro (RQME) de 3,41 folhas, enquanto a cultivar 'MGS ASC315' teve a RQME de 6,58 folhas. O modelo do Filocrono se mostrou mais eficiente para a cultivar 'MG ASC315' com RQME de 2,98 folhas, inferior ao da cultivar 'Arbequina', com RQME de 7,49 folhas.

Simulation models are tools used in the Agrometeorology to quantify the development of agricultural and forest crops. The aim of this work was to evaluate and compare the Phyllochron (linear) and the Wang and Engel (non-linear) models for estimating the leaf development, by leaf appearance, in two olive cultivars during the seedling phase. A field experiment was carried out in the Agricultural Company of Minas Gerais (EPAMIG), Maria da Fé (MG). The experimental design was completely randomized in a factorial arrangement, with two cultivars, nine planting dates and 15 repetitions in each treatment. The three first planting dates were used to estimate the models coefficients and other planting dates were used as independent data to evaluate the models. The response was different for the two cultivars. The Wang and Engel model estimations performed better for 'Arbequina', with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.41 leaves while the Phyllochron model better estimated for 'MGS ASC315'with RMSE of 2.98 leaves, below the one obtained for the 'Arbequina' cultivar with a RMSE of 7.49 leaves.